Smaller independent publishers and “art comics” publishers: I’m not sure these publishers get affected much at all.  The pragmatic view is that there are only 300 stores that stock them in significant numbers.  These stores are likely to be more diversified in their revenue streams and more likely to already be on the TPB bandwagon.  The major market, small as it may be, should be fairly stable.  There’s a possibility that dissatisfaction/animosity towards Big 2 titles even causes more shops to give the smaller stuff a try.

Marvel: If the monthly titles tank, Marvel has invested in a digital infrastructure (see: Spider-Girl).  They just put a bigger focus on their digital practice and TPB’s.  Marvel has fully embraced quickly issuing collected editions and are quick to issue hard cover editions of the more popular series for added revenue.  As long as Marvel doesn’t suffer a sudden string of box office failures, and when I say failures, I mean “Waterworld”-level bombs, they have enough time to weather the transition from magazine publisher to book publisher.

DC: While Marvel was quicker to jump on issuing TPB’s for practically every series, if you want to talk bestselling TPB’s, DC’s beats Marvel like it was a red-headed, left-handed stepchild.  While it is far from a monthly occurrence, DC has been known to publish “original graphic novels.”  Lot of this is done through the Vertigo imprint, but the Brian Azzarello/LeeBermejo Joker graphic novel would be an example of a successful graphic novel in their main universe.  Bob Schreck was even working on a new line of Vertigo graphic novels when he was laid off.  Yes, you can make an argument that most of DC’s graphic novel success comes from Vertigo and proto-Vertigo books like Watchmen and Dark Knight, but they do have experience in-house.

The other side of the new equation is online.  Here, DC has been sticking their fingers in their ears and singing “Ting-a-Ling-a-Loo” whenever the online topic comes up, and then pointing to Zuda, which seems neither seems to be exactly what we’re talking about, in terms of distributing their current print content in digital format, nor has it created great buzz among readers (as opposed to contestants).  They’ve got some serious catching up to do on this side of the house.

Image/Dark Horse/IDW/Dynamite: There’s a class of publisher that’s much bigger than the art comics set, but much smaller than the Big 2 and it’s really hard to say how they get affected by all this.  If you look at their circulations, this grouping of publishers, clearly doesn’t have 100% reach to all shops and it isn’t clear what their sales levels are in smaller, more vulnerable shops.  They have varying degrees on online presence, MySpace being a popular destination, though there’s some question as to how firm MySpace’s ongoing commitment to comics is.  My best guess they’re looking at a 10%-20% drop, though there’s also a possibility they benefit from the Big Two backlash.  Remember, Dark Horse, IDW and Dynamite all have licenses that the general public recognizes and that’s never something to be discounted out of hand.  It would seem to me these firms are less likely to be cutting back on their monthly books.

This would leave us with a smaller number of titles on the monthly docket, potentially more serialization of smaller strips in an online-only fashion, and more print material intended for your bookshelf.  In many ways, the shift to TPB is the U.S. slowly moving towards the European model.

Will this happen?  Maybe.  Maybe not.  It’s a worst-case scenario.  And even if things move in this direction, the order cycle of the direct market, coupled with the lack of sell-through reporting mean there will be at least a two month delay in knowing how deep cuts go.  However, if you’re in the business, it’s worth your time to contemplate what you’ll do if it indeed moves in this direction.  After all, while the numbers for February only dipped 2% for monthlies, you need to take nearly $594,000 out for the windfall retail value of the Obama Spider-Man reprints for the real health of that market.  While there were reports of Diamond warehouse issues accounting for some of the troubling 9% dip in graphic novel sales in February, you’ve also got approximately $285,000 of various Watchmen editions in the run-up to the film’s release, and that should start wearing off by April.  Things might not be as leveled off as people would like to believe.

Next: Webcomics in a Post-Direct Market World

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